Election Projections Survey (10/16) [original post]

[This post was moved over from unfutz, where it was replaced by an edited version. Below is the original text of the final updated version. -- Ed]

[updated below]

Before the 2004 election, I did a series of posts which surveyed the various sites which projected the results of the Electoral College. (The final full post of that series is here.) I've been contemplating doing something similar for the upcoming election, but have been put off both by the complexities of the House races (the quest for control of the Senate being conceptually similar to the Electoral College) and by the memory of the long hours of slogging work that went into those survey posts.

Nothwithstanding my reservations, I've decided to at least dip a toe in and take a look at some of the predictions that are out there. I've started with some of the sites that I included last time, and will add additional sites as I find them or they are brought to my attention.

I don't expect this survey to get quite as complicated (and time consuming) as the last one, but I've been wrong about stuff like that before.

Anyway, here's my first baby step towards a survey of projections for the balance of power in Congress after the 2006 election:


Cold Hearted Truth / Cook Political Report / CQ Politics / DC's Political Report / Election Junkie / Election Predictions / Election Projection / Electoral Vote / Larry Sabato / My Election Analysis / MyDD / Real Clear Politics / Robert Silvey
P.S. I welcome any additions, corrections, explanations or complaints that will help to improve the scope or accuracy of this survey. I'll publish relevant changes as soon as possible.

Correction: I believe I've switched the Cook Political Report numbers, they should be Dem 44 - Rep 48, with 8 toss-ups. This brings the average down to Dem 48.6 - Rep 49.2.

Update: Well, I thought I was done with this for the night, but that turned out not to be the case -- I continued to search for new sites and rediscover old ones and update the information. Since I have it, I may as well post it (with the hope that it won't be filled with errors due to my bleary-eyed state):


CNN / Cold Hearted Truth / Cook Political Report / CQ Politics / DC's Political Report / Election Junkie / Election Predictions / Election Projection / Electoral Vote / Larry Sabato / Majority Watch /My Election Analysis / MyDD / New York Times / Radio Left / Rasmussen / Real Clear Politics / Robert Silvey / Rothenberg Political Report / Slate

Wikipedia: Senate / House
Update: I've just noticed that the projection on Radio Left is not an original one but a repeat of the Electoral-Vote projection, so I'll be removing it in the next iteration.

Update: This should be the last clean-up/update for 10/16:


CNN / Cold Hearted Truth / Cook Political Report / CQ Politics / DC's Political Report / Election Junkie / Election Predictions / Election Projection / Electoral Vote / Larry Sabato / Majority Watch /My Election Analysis / MyDD / New York Times / Rasmussen / Real Clear Politics / Robert Silvey / Rothenberg Political Report / Slate / Tradesports / WSJ/Zogby

Wikipedia: Senate / House

Update: Oops! One thing I neglected to do was include any analysis, so here's a bit o' that.

Analysis: According to the collective perception of the people who put together these projections, it looks as if the Democrats are very close to taking the House with a bare majority, but may fall one or two seats short of taking the Senate.

I hope to continue to update this survey every couple of days, or at least twice a week, until the election.