[This was sent to me via e-mail from Thomas B. Fagan on 8/9/2004, and I included the results of the analysis on my Electoral College survey of 8/15/2004. I'm posting it here in order to make it publicly accessible, as I've not been able to find it elsewhere on the net. -- Ed Fitzgerald]
ELECTLINE - STATE PRESIDENTIAL REVISED LINES
To those unfamiliar with the former ElectNet.org election handicapping system, each race projects an under/over point spread between the first and second place finishers in each race. It works just like football and basketball point spreads. In a two man race, a “-4” , for example, means I am projecting a 52-48 final result.
The system depends very little on polls, but heavily on previous results, demographics, voter registration, and miscellaneous details relevant to the candidates, issues, and the region. Incumbency is a relatively heavy factor in U.S. House races, but less for Presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial contests.
The following describes each state’s projected result for the presidential election. The states will proceed alphabetically, and will give a projection and a short analysis.
ALABAMA
6-26: Bush by 19.
NEW: Bush by 19.5.
Bush won by 14.9 last time. Nothing much indicates that margin will
shrink.
ALASKA
6-26: Bush by 28
NEW: Bush by 27
Bush won by 31 last time.. Close Senate race may help Democrat turnout.
ARIZONA
6-26: Bush by 8
NOW: Bush by 8.
Bush by 6.3 in 2000. Bush has superior area pull. With McCain working hard, most indicators show Bush pulling away.
ARKANSAS
6-26: Bush by 6.5.
NOW: Bush by 5.5.
Bush by 5.5 last time. After rightward lurch in the 1990s, the state has been returning to it’s Dem roots recently. Easy win for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) may stem Bush tide.
CALIFORNIA
6-26: Kerry by 8.5.
NOW: Kerry by 9.
Gore by 11.8 in 2000. Disastrous Davis administration gave GOP a shot if Governor Arnold remains popular. Kerry hasn’t blown this open and Bush would love to force Dems to work to nail this one down.
COLORADO
6-26: Bush by 7.5
NOW: Bush by 7.
Bush by 8.4 last time. Most issues a null factor here and area pull helps incumbent. Close open Senate race may pull either way.
CONNECTICUT
6-26: Kerry by 15
NOW: Kerry by 14.5.
Joe Lieberman is off the ticket, but neighbor Kerry is on. Nobody seems to know Bush was born in New Haven. Gore won by 17.5 in 2000. In this high income state, the tax cuts are popular, but Bush’s foreign policy and social programs aren’t.
DELAWARE
6-26: Kerry by 9
NOW: Kerry by 10.
Gore won in 2000 by 13.1. However, tax cuts and growth policies popular. Regional pull a factor. Seems conceded by GOP.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
6-26: Kerry by 73
NOW: Kerry by 75.
Wall to wall Dem district went for Gore by 76.2 in 2000. Nader has a better shot here than Bush.
FLORIDA
6-26:Bush by 3.5
NOW: Bush by 2.
Jeb Bush is still popular and most issues favor the incumbent. This has great symbolic worth for Dems, even though Bush no longer needs it as much.
GEORGIA
6-26:Bush by 13.5
NOW: Bush by 13.
Bush won by 11.7 in 2000. He is now stronger on all issues, especially religious/social. Easy Senate pickup won’t hurt.
HAWAII
6-26: Kerry by 16
NOW: Kerry by 16
State has rebelled against far left governance lately but is in Dem camp. Gore won by 18.2. No action here this time.
IDAHO
6-26: Bush by 40
NOW: Bush by 38.5
Bush won by 39.5 in 2000 in this most Republican state. Hasn’t gone Democrat since 1964.
ILLINOIS
6-26: Kerry by 10.5
NOW: Kerry by 12.
Gore in 2000 won by 12. Union vote still a factor here. Reagan Democrats might be more sympathetic to Bush than brahmin Kerry, but but totally disorganized GOP hasn’t even guaranteed Bush a ballot spot yet.
INDIANA
6-26: Bush by 15
NOW: Bush by 15
Bush won by 15.6 last time out. Rust Belt recession could have worked against him. Kerry has conceded state as recovery has bouyed GOP.
IOWA
6-26: Bush by 2
NOW: Bush by 1
Gore won by 0.3 in 2000. Kerry not a good fit here, but state flips between boilerplate left and hard right. If economy improves, Bush should survive.
Kerry treating state as must win.
KANSAS
6-26: Bush by 22
NOW: Bush by 21
Seems to be coming in at the same rate as 2000. Not much motivation here either way
KENTUCKY
6-26: Bush by 13
NOW: Bush by 11.5.
Dems would love to make a run here, especially with Sen. Jim Bunning in minor trouble. Won’t happen.
LOUISIANA
6-26: Bush by 8.5
NOW: Bush by 9.
Next to Florida, the strongest D state in the South. Dems clinging to power in many state races. Hard to see Kerry doing better than Gore, though, who lost by 7.7. A must win for Bush.
MAINE
6-26: Kerry by 4
NOW: Kerry by 3.5
State lurched left in 1990s, but Dem Gov. Balducci’s numbers are collaping. However, regional draw, unions, and greens should lift Kerry. Gore won by 5. Like Nebraska, Maine has a Congrsssional Electoral system. so Bush could scrape 1 Elector even if Kerry wins a close one.
MARYLAND
6-26: Kerry by 13.5
NOW: Kerry by 12.5
State threw Dems out of Governor’s mansion two years ago, but regionalism and social issues break for Kerry. Gore won by 16.4. Kerry seems to be having some problems locking this up.
MASSACHUSETTS
6-26: Kerry by 28
NOW: Kerry by 28
Republican control of the Governor’s mansion, plus gay marriage backlash may keep final respectable. Gore won by 27.3. Home state sentiment boosts Kerry. Convention in Boston may not have helped Kerry.
MICHIGAN
6-26: Kerry by 1.5
NOW: Kerry by 3.
Battleground state went Gore by 5.1. Reagan Democrats may lean Bush on security issues, but Rust Belt pull may favor Kerry unless job picture continues to brighten. Iraq seems to be helping Kerry.
MINNESOTA
6-26: Kerry by 1
Now: Kerry by 1.5
State went Gore by 2.4 in 2000. MN not a reliable D state, but has voted with the Dems every year since 1972. Dem-Farmer-Labor knows how to win here, despite recent erosion. Hardliners will pull out close one.
MISSISSIPPI
6-26 Bush by 18.5
NOW: Bush by 21.
Went Bush by 16.9 last time. Cultural swing should boost that. Dems giving Miss absolutely nothing to vote for in the cultural war.
MISSOURI
6-26 Bush by 6
NOW: Bush by 4.5
Bush won 2000 by 3.3 Ashcroft promotion probably helped. Mizzou hasn’t been wrong on a candidate since Nixon in 1960. Probably the only must win state for both parties.
MONTANA
6-26: Bush by 26
NOW: Bush by 26
Bush won in 2000 by 25.1. Strong GOP state.Cowboy country.
NEBRASKA
6-26: Bush by 30.5
NOW: Bush by 29.5
Reliable R state went Bush by 29 last time. Issues indicate no change. GOP has won here nine straight elections.
NEVADA
6-26: Bush by 4.5
NOW: Bush by 3
Independent state. Large Lib faction with hard left, green, and Christian Right influence. Went Bush by 3.5 in 2000. Kerry made the politically correct, if illogical, promise to stop using Nevada for centralized nuclear waste storage. This has helped him.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
6-26: Bush by 2.5
NOW: Bush by 1.
Free State Project may help Bush slightly by emphasizing low tax agenda. Kerry regional pull keeps this close. 2000 went Bush by 1.3. Another Florida?
NEW JERSEY
6-26: Kerry by 12
NOW: Kerry by 9
Went Gore by 15.8 in 2000, but Dem popularity is plunging. Regional pull plus social issues should keep,this Dem. Kerry unable to pull away and would hate to have to spend money here.
NEW MEXICO
6-26: Bush by 4
NOW: Bush by 1.5
Bush must be seen as small favorite in state which went to Gore by only 0.1. Polls (which I discount at this stage), show Kerry big. I’m cautious, but this is still in play.
NEW YORK
6-26: Kerry by 19
NOW: Kerry by 20.5
Went for Gore by 25. Not much has changed, although 9-11 made Bush a more sympathetic candidate. With easy win, Dems might not be motivated.
NORTH CAROLINA
6-26: Bush by 15.5
NOW: Bush by 12
Safely in R camp. Went Bush by 12.8 in 2000. Edwards seemed to have supplied some bump, but no real Dem play here.
NORTH DAKOTA
6-26: Bush by 29
NOW: Bush by 29
Dems win statewide fairly frequently but goes GOP nationally. Went Bush by 26.6 in 2000. If this state is below a 25 point margin for Bush, it means he’s in trouble nationally.
OHIO
6-26: Bush by 3
NOW: Bush by 3
Rust Belt recovery better pick up speed or this normally GOP state remains shaky. It’s gone with the winner since 1960 and Republican 8 of the last 12. Bush won 2000 by 3.5. Must win for Bush
OKLAHOMA
6-26: Bush by 23.5
NOW: Bush by 24.5
Despite upset win for Governor by Dems in 2002, GOP leanings remain strong. Over the border pull adds to landslide. In 2002. Margin seems to be growing regardless of any outside occurances.
OREGON
6-26: Bush by 2
NOW: Kerry by 1
Gore won 2000 by 0.4. Kerry’s tax policy and New England liberalism don’t play well here. Social issues plus Green backing of Kerry seem to have moved him ahead.
PENNSYLVANIA
6-26: Kerry by 1
NOW: Kerry by 2.5
Absolute necessity for Kerry to win to maintain viability. Bush’s ill-advised steel tariffs may have helped him here, but needs added economic good news to pull it out. Spector primary win might actually hurt Bush by depressing the base vote.
RHODE ISLAND
6-26: Kerry by 27
NOW: Kerry by 27
Everything breaks for Kerry here. Over the border pull, Gore took by 29.1, and Teddy Kennedy’s son is a congressman. Anything less than a 25 point spread means Kerry’s in trouble nationwide..
SOUTH CAROLINA
6-26: Bush by 18
NOW: Bush by 16.5
Solid south GOP. Despite outsourcing jobs controversy, other issues run right. SC-born Edwards’ pick apparently helped Kerry a little here.
SOUTH DAKOTA
6-26: Bush by 23
NOW: Bush by 20.5
Safe for Bush, but Daschle’s reelection seems to have motivated Dems. Bush by 22.8 last time. If Bush slips below 20, it may mean he’s in national trouble.
TENNESSEE
6-26: Bush by 7
NOW: Bush by 6
Bush won by 3.9 in 2000. If Gore couldn’t win here, Kerry is long-shot. Bush doesn’t want to spend money here, but may have to.
TEXAS
6-26: Bush by 23
NOW: Bush by 22.5
Texas Dems are feisty but facing extinction. Home ground fertile for Bush.In 2000, Bush carried by 21.3. No argument here.
UTAH
6-26: Bush by 41.5
NOW: Bush by 42
All issues break for Bush, who took this state by 42.5 last time. Social issues especially should play big. The most Republican state.
VERMONT
6-26: Kerry by 8
NOW: Kerry by 9.5
Dems would have preferred Dean, but Kerry is a neighbor. Gore won by 9.9 in 2000. Dean has been behaving himself and doing his job.
VIRGINIA
6-26: Bush by 9.5
NOW: Bush by 7.5
Much anti-tax feeling here and Bush should glide, but doesn’t appear to be. Bush won 2000 by 8.0. If this gets closer, watch out.
WASHINGTON
6-26: Kerry by 1.5
NOW: Kerry by 2.5
Activist Dems would have preferred Dean. Kerry a bit too traditional a liberal here. Another must-win for Dems. They need to put this one away quickly before Bush counterattacks.
WEST VIRGINIA
6-26: Bush by 6
NOW: Bush by 4
Kerry will have to run away from his gun control votes here, although strong union ties will work for him. Bush won 2000 by 6.4. Bush can afford to lose here, but would prefer not to.
WISCONSIN
6-26: Bush by 2
NOW: Bush by 2
One state where the minors hurt the GOP last time as Gore won by 0.2.Another must-win for Kerry. Big surge in GOP registration should turn this.
WYOMING
6-26: Bush by 42
NOW: Bush by 41
It’ll be hard for Bush to surpass 2000 win by 40.1, but he may. Cheney’s roots don’t hurt. Minors nullified each other last time with each side taking 2.3.
This projects to Bush 300 to Kerry 238. However, 94 of Bush’s electoral votes and 70 of Kerry’s are in states projected as closer than 5 points. Minor swings in fortune could elect either man.
